Table of Contents
🧭 Introduction
After a turbulent June marked by macro tension and mixed ETF flow, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has entered a tight consolidation range — with volatility compressing and volume fading.
But don’t be fooled by the stillness.
This isn’t indecision. It’s preparation.
As we enter July:
• BTC is holding just above $60,000, refusing to break down
• Spot ETF flows are fluctuating — but not exiting
• Altcoins are lagging, and dominance is ticking up — a classic pre-move signal
At Mastery Trader Academy, we don’t chase candles or make emotional predictions. We track structure, order flow, and macro catalysts to position ourselves before the move happens — not after.
In this week’s breakdown, you’ll learn:
• The key BTC support and resistance zones that matter right now
• What ETF flows and Fed expectations say about sentiment
• Bullish vs. bearish scenarios — and how to prepare for both
• A final mindset reminder to keep you sharp and steady all week
Whether you’re swing trading BTC, watching spot flow, or prepping for the next move on leverage — this guide will help you stay one step ahead, not one FOMO entry behind.
🔍 Spot ETF Flows & Macro Drivers: What’s Moving Bitcoin Right Now
In 2024, spot ETFs changed the game for Bitcoin. In 2025, they’re driving the tempo.
📊 ETF Flow Overview
Last week’s Bitcoin spot ETF flows were mixed to slightly net positive — led by steady inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT, while other issuers like Fidelity and ARK saw reduced activity.
Why this matters:
• Flows = real demand.
• When net inflows dry up, BTC stalls.
• When they spike, price often follows — especially at key technical levels.
✅ June ended with moderate ETF accumulation — no mass panic, but also no breakout fuel… yet.
🏦 Macro Catalysts to Watch
- US Fed & Inflation Signals
o The Fed continues its cautious tone on rate cuts.
o Traders are now pricing in one cut by November, not July.
o Risk-on sentiment is paused, not dead — BTC reacts to shifts in real yields and dollar strength. - Equities Cooling, Crypto Coiling
o S&P 500 and Nasdaq are losing steam at highs
o If risk sentiment sours or macro panic returns, BTC could suffer in the short term - Global Liquidity & BRICS Talk
o Quiet moves in China and BRICS discussions around non-dollar assets have long-term bullish implications for BTC — but not yet priced in.
🧠 Bottom Line:
Bitcoin is currently in a low-volatility holding pattern, driven by ETF flow pauses and cautious macro sentiment. The next move will likely come when either ETF inflows return aggressively — or macro data jolts risk appetite.
📊 Key Technical Zones on BTC/USD This Week
Bitcoin is trapped in a tightening coil — stuck between critical support and resistance. The longer it compresses, the bigger the breakout.
Here’s what matters this week on the chart:
🟢 Support Zones to Watch
• $60,000 – $60,800: Major psychological floor + previous breakout zone. Buyers continue defending this area on dips.
• $58,300: 2024’s neckline from the consolidation base. A loss of this level could spark deeper correction.
• $55,000: Ultimate downside cushion — untested weekly demand and breakout origin from ETF rally.
🔴 Resistance Zones to Monitor
• $63,500: Mid-range supply and weekly rejection point. Bulls must flip this to break the range.
• $65,800 – $66,200: Final range ceiling. Multiple failed breakout attempts. If reclaimed with volume, BTC likely accelerates to new highs.
• $69,000: ATH re-test from March. Not in play yet, but remains the magnet if $66K breaks.
🔁 Market Structure
• 4H Structure: Sideways with lower highs — a compression wedge forming.
• Daily Chart: Coiling under resistance — potential for squeeze if ETF flow turns bullish.
• Volume: Declining — breakout likely soon, especially after extended low volatility.
📈 Tip: A clean 4H close above $66K on strong volume = breakout confirmation.
📉 Bearish below $60K, especially on high sell volume.
🟢 Bullish and 🔴 Bearish Trade Scenarios for BTC This Week
Bitcoin is compressing into a range — and both breakout and breakdown scenarios are on the table. Smart traders prepare for both outcomes, not just the one they want.
🟢 Bullish Trade Setup
Context: If ETF inflows pick up or macro data supports risk-on sentiment, BTC could break above resistance with force.
Setup Idea A:
• Buy breakout above $63,500
• Confirmation: Strong 4H candle close + rising volume
• Target 1: $65,800
• Target 2: $69,000 (ATH retest)
• Stop: Below $62,800 or last breakout candle low
Setup Idea B:
• Buy pullback into $60,800 support zone
• Entry only if bullish wick or engulfing candle forms on the 4H chart
• Target: Range mid-point ($63,500), then $65,800
• Stop: Below $59,900
Bullish Confluence:
• ETF inflows resume
• Nasdaq/S&P bounce
• BTC dominance increases while altcoins lag
🔴 Bearish Trade Setup
Context: If ETF flows stall or macro risk rises (e.g., inflation surprise, Fed panic), BTC could break down sharply.
Setup Idea A:
• Short rejection at $63,500 with clear 4H bearish engulfing + low volume breakout
• Target 1: $60,800
• Target 2: $58,300
• Stop: Above $64,200
Setup Idea B:
• Short breakdown below $60,000
• Look for clean 4H close under support + weak bounce
• Target: $58,300, then $55,000 if momentum follows
• Stop: Above $60,600
Bearish Confluence:
• High CPI or hawkish Fed speech
• Heavy ETF outflows or flat inflows
• Risk-off in global equities
📌 Tip: Don’t force the setup. Let BTC show strength or weakness. Trade with confirmation — not prediction.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis: What’s Behind Bitcoin’s Next Move?
Beyond charts and candles, Bitcoin’s behavior this week will be shaped by fundamental drivers — especially around ETF demand, macro signals, and investor psychology.
- Spot ETF Flow Momentum
• While inflows slowed in late June, there’s no sign of mass exit from institutional holders.
• BlackRock and Fidelity continue to lead quiet accumulation, suggesting underlying confidence remains intact.
• If inflows pick up early in July, it could be the catalyst BTC needs to break $66K. - Macro Uncertainty Holding Risk in Check
• The Fed’s hawkish stance has paused rate cut optimism.
• Traders are now focused on key data drops this week (ISM, jobless claims, unemployment rate).
• If data disappoints and the dollar weakens, BTC may benefit as a risk-on hedge. - BTC Dominance & Altcoin Sentiment
• Bitcoin dominance is rising, which often signals capital rotation into safety.
• When altcoins lag and BTC holds — it’s often a pre-breakout sign.
• If dominance spikes above 55%, expect altcoin bleeding and BTC spotlight. - Market Sentiment: Fear of Missing the Next Leg
• Retail is watching closely but not fully re-engaged.
• Any sudden breakout above $66K will likely trigger a wave of FOMO buying, especially from sidelined traders and ETF watchers.
📅 Key Macro Events to Watch (July 1–5, 2025)
• Monday, July 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (USA): A weak number may boost BTC by weakening the dollar.
• Tuesday, July 2 – JOLTS Job Openings: Signs of labor market weakness could revive Fed rate cut hopes.
• Wednesday, July 3 – FOMC Meeting Minutes: Traders will look for any shift in tone regarding future rate cuts.
• Thursday, July 4 – US Independence Day: Expect low liquidity and higher chances of fakeouts or stop hunts.
• Friday, July 5 – Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate: A major volatility trigger for crypto and risk assets.
📊 Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow Recap (June 24–28, 2025)
• BlackRock (IBIT): +2,300 BTC added — steady institutional confidence.
• Fidelity (FBTC): +1,150 BTC — inflows slowing but still positive.
• ARK 21Shares (ARKB): −300 BTC — small outflows, likely short-term rotation.
• Grayscale (GBTC): −1,200 BTC — consistent bleeding continues.
• Net Weekly Flow: +1,950 BTC overall — neutral to slightly bullish momentum.
🏁 Final Thought: Patience Pays More Than Prediction
Bitcoin is coiling for a breakout — but it doesn’t owe you a direction. Your job this week isn’t to guess where it’s going. It’s to prepare, observe, and execute with discipline.
Let other traders chase hype, guess tops, or panic on fakeouts. You focus on this:
• Know your levels before the market opens.
• Wait for confirmation — volume, structure, and price action must align.
• Risk small, size correctly, and never revenge trade.
• Track ETF flows and macro news, but don’t let them dictate impulsive entries.
This week could offer serious opportunities — but only for those calm enough to follow a plan. In a market full of noise, the quiet trader often wins.
📌 Trade what you see, not what you feel. Be patient. Be precise. Be paid.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only. Nothing in this article constitutes financial advice. Always trade based on your own research, risk management, and trading plan.
To stay ahead in Bitcoin trading, understanding both technical structure and macro behavior is essential. While short-term volatility may distract many retail traders, professionals rely on institutional signals to time their entries. One critical tool is real-time ETF flow tracking, which gives insight into actual capital movement behind price changes. You can monitor this using tools like CryptoQuant, which provides trusted data on ETF inflows, miner behavior, and exchange activity.
Alongside macro signals, knowing how Bitcoin responds to liquidity inducement is crucial. That’s why our in-depth breakdown on Liquidity Inducement Trading Strategy: How Smart Money Lures Retail Traders Into the Trap is a must-read. It explores how institutional players bait retail traders at key levels — and how you can position yourself on the right side of the move.