Table of Contents
🧭 Introduction
Ethereum isn’t making headlines — and that’s exactly when smart money starts paying attention.
While Bitcoin has dominated the narrative with ETF inflows and macro correlation, Ethereum has quietly held above its major structure and is showing signs of relative strength. With the market gearing up for potential ETH ETF approvals in Q3, traders are starting to position early — and price action this week could give the first real clues.
If ETH starts leading instead of lagging, we may be at the beginning of a rotation phase — where altcoins begin outperforming BTC.
This week’s ETH outlook will cover:
• 🔍 The key levels to watch on the 4H and daily charts
• 📊 What ETH ETF news and macro events could trigger a move
• 🟢/🔴 Bullish and bearish trade scenarios to prep in advance
• 🧠 How ETH typically reacts when BTC ranges and dominance shifts
No predictions. Just preparation. Let’s break it down.
📊 ETF & Macro Drivers to Watch
While Ethereum hasn’t had its ETF moment yet, the pressure is building — and smart traders know that markets often move in anticipation, not reaction. Here’s what to keep on your radar this week:
🟣 Ethereum ETF Approval Countdown
• BlackRock and Fidelity have both submitted S-1 amendments for ETH spot ETFs.
• The SEC’s review window reopens in mid-July, but decisions could leak or shift sentiment before then.
• If any ETF timelines or insider commentary hit the news cycle, ETH could front-run the hype.
📉 Macro Watch: Dollar, Rates, and Risk Appetite
• Ethereum benefits from risk-on sentiment, so keep an eye on:
o USD weakness (DXY down = ETH up)
o 10Y Treasury yields dropping
o Soft labor or manufacturing data, which could revive rate-cut optimism
• Key macro events this week (ISM, JOLTS, NFP) will indirectly influence ETH through the Bitcoin risk flow correlation.
🔄 ETH/BTC Ratio Is Turning
• ETH/BTC ratio is testing a 3-month resistance zone.
• If it breaks higher, it signals rotation from BTC dominance into ETH-led rallies, a classic altseason trigger.
• This ratio matters: prop traders and funds watch it to shift exposure between BTC and ETH.
📉 Key Technical Levels: ETH Structure This Week
Ethereum’s price action remains coiled between macro support and mid-range resistance — with a breakout likely as BTC ranges and ETF chatter intensifies.
Here are the levels worth tracking on the 4H and Daily charts:
🔹 Support Zones
• $3,310 – $3,350: Local demand zone and prior breakout base. This level has held multiple retests and is key for short-term bias.
• $3,150 – $3,200: Last line of defense before downside opens toward $2,900. Watch for bullish reactions here on news spikes or BTC wicks.
• $2,900 (Major Support): Psychological level and 200-day EMA confluence. If reached, expect strong buyer interest.
🔸 Resistance Zones
• $3,600 – $3,650: Mid-range cap from last week. ETH has failed here twice. A clean 4H close above could signal the start of trend expansion.
• $3,850 – $3,900: High-volume node and ETF anticipation target. If momentum kicks in, this level becomes magnetized.
• $4,100+: Major breakout territory. Above this zone, ETH enters price discovery mode toward 2021 highs.
✅ Tip: If ETH breaks above $3,650 with rising volume and BTC holds range, it could lead ETH’s move into dominance.
🧭 Trade Scenarios: Plan Before You Trade
Ethereum’s chart offers clean structure this week — but only prepared traders will capitalize. Whether you prefer scalping or swing trading, here are two high-probability setups to prep in advance:
🟢 Bullish Scenario: Breakout or Bounce
Trigger: ETH reclaims $3,650 with strong momentum (volume + candle body close)
Plan:
• Enter on breakout + retest of the $3,650 zone
• First target: $3,850
• Second target: $3,980–$4,000 psychological level
• Stop-loss: Below $3,580 (last bullish structure)
Alternative Entry: Long at $3,300 support on bullish wick reaction, targeting $3,600–$3,650 range highs
📌 Only take longs if BTC holds range or pushes higher with volume. ETH rarely runs solo for long.
🔴 Bearish Scenario: Rejection + Breakdown
Trigger: ETH fails at $3,600–$3,650 again and loses $3,300 support
Plan:
• Enter short after breakdown below $3,300 + weak retest
• First target: $3,200
• Second target: $3,050
• Stop-loss: Above $3,360 swing level or rejection high
Alternative Entry: Short wick rejection at $3,650 if volume dries up or BTC starts breaking down
📌 Wait for confirmation. Don’t short strength — wait for weakness to be clear.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis: What’s Fueling ETH Right Now?
While technical levels guide your entries, fundamentals shape the bigger picture. Ethereum’s current narrative is quietly gaining strength — and smart traders are already positioning.
🪙 1. ETH ETF Momentum Is Building
• Multiple Spot Ethereum ETF applications (from BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck) are under SEC review with a decision window opening soon.
• Analysts expect approvals as early as Q3 2025, triggering pre-positioning from institutions.
• Even without approval, headline momentum can fuel rallies, just like BTC did pre-ETF.
🔁 2. ETH/BTC Rotation Could Signal Altseason
• ETH/BTC ratio is bottoming and showing signs of accumulation.
• A breakout above the 0.06 ratio could shift flows away from BTC and back into ETH/Layer 2 narratives.
• Historically, strong ETH/BTC rallies signal a bullish environment for all altcoins.
🔗 3. Layer 2 Ecosystem Growth
• Platforms like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base are still onboarding users and TVL (total value locked) is rising steadily.
• More usage = more gas fees = higher demand for ETH — especially as staking remains strong.
• Ethereum remains the settlement layer for most of crypto, which supports long-term demand.
📉 4. Macro Risk Still Matters
• ETH remains tied to risk-on sentiment. A dovish Fed, soft economic data, or weak USD fuels ETH strength.
• However, sharp equity pullbacks or renewed inflation fears could stall any ETH breakout.
• Watch the macro calendar closely — especially around Non-Farm Payrolls and FOMC tone shifts.
📅 Macro Calendar & ETF Flow Summary (July 1–5)
Stay sharp. This week brings market-moving events that could affect Ethereum directly through risk sentiment or indirectly via Bitcoin volatility.
🗓️ Key Macro Events to Watch
• Monday, July 1 –
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD): A weak print may boost ETH by reinforcing a dovish Fed narrative.
• Tuesday, July 2 –
JOLTS Job Openings (USD): Labor weakness = more reason for rate cuts = risk-on mood.
• Wednesday, July 3 –
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Insight into how seriously the Fed views inflation vs. growth.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• Thursday, July 4 –
U.S. Independence Day (Holiday): Lower liquidity = higher volatility risk.
• Friday, July 5 –
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): The most important print of the week. A major beat or miss will move both BTC and ETH.
💼 ETF Flow & Sentiment Tracker
• Bitcoin ETFs saw mild net inflows last week — ETH tends to follow BTC spot momentum within 48–72 hours.
• ETH ETF filings are under review. Watch for any headlines or leak-based speculation — especially from BlackRock or Grayscale.
🏁 Final Thought: Calm Execution = Consistent Profits
Ethereum doesn’t need hype to move. The quiet weeks are often when real positioning begins — especially ahead of high-impact catalysts like the potential ETH ETF approvals. This is where the smart money prepares, not reacts.
If you’re trading ETH this week, remember: your job isn’t to predict the news — it’s to react to price with discipline.
Here’s how to stay sharp in this environment:
• Let the market confirm your bias. Don’t enter just because ETH “should” move. Wait for structure and volume to agree.
• Don’t overtrade the chop. Ethereum tends to follow BTC’s volatility rhythm — if BTC is ranging, ETH trades require extra patience.
• Stick to the plan. Whether you’re long from $3,300 or waiting to fade a breakout near $3,900, let your stop-loss and targets do their job.
• Track the ETH/BTC ratio — if ETH starts leading, it could spark broader altcoin flows.
Also, be mindful of the macro calendar. With NFP, FOMC minutes, and ETF anticipation swirling, expect volatility spikes — especially midweek. If you’re a prop firm trader, this is where you prove your edge: stay calm, follow risk limits, and execute with confidence.
Remember: Ethereum rewards structured conviction — not emotional trades.
📌 Be patient. Be precise. Be paid.
Mastering the markets requires more than just strategy — it demands real-time insight and the ability to react with confidence when volatility strikes. That’s why professional traders go beyond basic charts and explore tools that reveal the underlying intent of market participants. One of the most effective ways to see this in action is through advanced order flow platforms like Bookmap, which allow traders to visualize liquidity, volume, and hidden support/resistance in real time. But before jumping into advanced analytics, it’s critical to build a strong foundation — and one of the best places to start is with reliable indicators like moving averages.
Our guide on What Is a Moving Average in Trading? (Beginner’s Guide to SMA vs EMA + How to Use Them 2025) breaks down how these trend-following tools work, why they’re trusted across all markets, and how you can combine them with order flow for next-level precision. Together, these resources give you a powerful edge — helping you eliminate noise, track smart money moves, and execute with confidence in any market condition.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This outlook is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade based on your own research, risk tolerance, and strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.